June bug wrote:mimi - as I read the above, it's referring to a 2008 poll, correct? Do we know if the recent poll on DADT was done the same way, i.e., self-selected rather than random sample?
Although the necessary information has not yet been made available by
Military Times, in December 2009 the Servicemembers Legal Defense Network released
a warning to the press concerning the soon-to-be-published results of the annual poll. There is no reason to think the 2009 poll was substantially different in methods from the 2008 poll. In all likelihood, it is a self-selected sample of subscribers to
Military Times. That is, of some 30,000 questionnaires sent out by e-mail, something around 5,000 subscribers responded, for a response rate of less than 20%. A breakdown of those who responded will very likely show a heavy preponderance of senior active military officers, with something like 5% of the sample being junior members of the military. A very long history of experience with self-selected samples (dating back to the
Literary Digest fiasco) has shown that self-selected samples tend very strongly to be biased samples: people with strong opinions are more likely to return the questionnaire.
Literary Digest predicted a landslide for Alf Landon.
The Military Times released a similar survey late in 2008 that received significant mainstream media attention. But most reporters failed to mention the survey’s methodology (in plain view on the newspaper’s website), and most drew profoundly wrong conclusions, suggesting the views of the paper’s subscribers -- which tend to be older than most veterans and perhaps more conservative -- could be applied to the military as a whole. They cannot.
Gary Langer, director of polling for ABC News, wrote at the time that the Military Times' survey was more of "a woefully incomplete census" of the publication's readers than a true poll. He compared the reliability of the poll's methodology to a "rusted carbine," noting, "in terms of their political and ideological leanings, the participants look nothing at all like what good data have found."
Moreover, the
Military Times poll of 2008 was constructed in as deliberate a manner as is conceivable so as to bias the results.
Regarding the potential negative bias, the first question following the demographics asks respondents if they’ve ever been hit on by someone of the same gender, and follows that by asking what their reaction was to that. Notably, though, the poll does not ask respondents about being hit on by a member of the opposite sex. I imagine many female active duty personnel would be interested in that data, because that situation is all too common in the military today, yet it is ignored by the Military Times poll. We will thus have data only on presumably unwelcome gay/lesbian sexual advances, but there will be no comparative data on unwelcome straight sexual advances. This constitutes an obvious negative spin to gay military service, focusing only on apparent gay misconduct. [And from the beginning it sets LGBT serving in the military in the context of sexual aggressors. That is like starting a poll with a question that sets Obama in the worst possible context and then pretending as if the answers to subsequent questions have not been affected by that first question. - TollandRCR]
The poll then proceeds to ask respondents if their superiors ever knew about a gay service member but refused to do anything about that situation. You can easily see the negative bias in the way this question is worded as well. It and the previous question inferring gay/lesbian misconduct play to the fear that gays serving openly will misbehave and create disruption in the unit; and further, commands may not be doing anything about gays serving (presumably openly and thus illegally). And the questions appear first in the order of opinion responses sought from subscribers, thus potentially generating a negative connotation about gays in the military even before asking opinions about gays serving honestly and honorably.
Emphasis mine. Bracketed insertion mine.
The 2008 questionnaire was a shameless homophobic attempt to bias the results. It's so shameless that it is dumb. A far cleverer pollster could have written a less obviously biasing lead question without being so easily caught. That poll tells us nothing of use and cannot tell us anything of use. There is no reason to believe that the "pollsters" at
Military Times have reformed in the intervening year. The 2008 poll would have constituted professional misconduct if the "pollsters" had actually been survey professionals; so may the 2009 poll. I'm betting on it.
I also want to stop traffic stops. Set it up like the Supreme Court rule in Knowles vs. Iowa . Can’t find an innocent car, you can’t look. basilmarceaux.com